How to build a project logframe or theory of change
Both methods follow the same logic: from the problem to the change you want, through what the program does. A theory of change focuses on why each step leads to the next; a logframe lays it out in a matrix.
Define the problem and the population
Describe the problem as a situation of the population, not as the lack of a solution, and make it concrete (open to only one reading), specific (who it affects) and informed (with data on its size). Distinguish the population affected by the problem from the one the program will serve: the second is part of the first.
Lay out the logical sequence
Arrange the program in links: activities (what the team does, with verbs: train, deliver), outputs (the goods and services that result, with nouns: workshops, gardens), outcomes (the short- and medium-term changes in the population) and impact (the long-term change). In a logframe they are called activities, outputs, purpose and goal.
Explain why each link leads to the next
Between each pair of links, write the hypothesis: if the outputs are delivered, then this change should follow. Ask whether the activities are enough for the outputs and whether the outputs can produce the outcome. If not, a link is missing or an expectation is too high. This is the core of a theory of change; in a logframe, it means reading the matrix from the bottom up.
Define the indicators
For each outcome, define an indicator: a name and a formula that relates at least two pieces of data. Note its baseline (the value before you start), the expected value and the means of verification, that is, where each piece of data comes from. Without a baseline, no target is possible.
Write the assumptions and review
Assumptions are the conditions the program doesn’t control and that can break the chain: preconditions (what the population is like, what was tried before), external factors (the context, institutions) and internal ones (the team’s own ideas about the population). Write them next to each link and review everything with the team before presenting it.
Other ways to do it
A logframe is built in a spreadsheet with a matrix of four rows (goal, purpose, outputs and activities) and four columns (narrative summary, indicators, means of verification and assumptions); many funders have their own template. A theory of change is usually drawn as a diagram, by hand or with diagramming software.
HILO is a good fit when the program is already written and you want to see what it says and what it’s missing: it runs in the browser, with nothing to install. For the diagnosis, the assumptions or a specific funder’s format, another tool is a better fit.
HILO’s help in this guide uses AI: you need an account.
Lay out your own program
Upload the document and see what it already says and what it’s missing to reach the indicators.
References
- Morra Imas, L. and Rist, R. (2009). The Road to Results: Designing and Conducting Effective Development Evaluations. World Bank.
- Ortegón, E., Pacheco, J. F. and Prieto, A. (2005). Metodología del marco lógico para la planificación, el seguimiento y la evaluación de proyectos y programas (in Spanish). CEPAL/ILPES.
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